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Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Fertility Rate

Atmospheric Methane (global) and US Fertility Rate correlate at r = -0.61 over 40 years (1984–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.15. Interpret with caution.

Verdict: Interpret with caution. Much of the apparent link is driven by a shared time trend: r falls from -0.61 to -0.15 once the trend is removed.

Pearson r
-0.61
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
40 (1984–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.78 to -0.37
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.15

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.