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Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Health Expenditure

Atmospheric Methane (global) and US Health Expenditure correlate at r = +0.78 over 24 years (2000–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.62. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.78, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.62. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.78
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
24 (2000–2023)
95% confidence interval
0.55 to 0.90
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.62

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.