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Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Bank Lending Interest Rate

Atmospheric Methane (global) and US Bank Lending Interest Rate correlate at r = -0.80 over 38 years (1984–2021), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.10. Likely spurious (shared time trend).

Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.10 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.

Pearson r
-0.80
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
38 (1984–2021)
95% confidence interval
-0.89 to -0.65
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.10

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.