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Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) vs US Adolescent Birth Rate
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) and US Adolescent Birth Rate correlate at r = +0.85 over 46 years (1979–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.10. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.10 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- +0.85
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 46 (1979–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.74 to 0.91
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.10
Sources
- Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) (million km²): NSIDC. Mean Arctic sea ice extent in September, the yearly minimum (NSIDC Sea Ice Index).
- US Adolescent Birth Rate (per 1,000 women 15–19): World Bank. US Adolescent Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.ADO.TFRT).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Adolescent Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Cereal Yield (r = -0.95)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Forest Area (r = -0.94)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Population (r = -0.94)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US GDP per Capita (r = -0.94)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US GDP (current US$) (r = -0.94)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.