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Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) vs US Cereal Yield
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) and US Cereal Yield correlate at r = -0.85 over 46 years (1979–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.11. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.11 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- -0.85
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 46 (1979–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.91 to -0.74
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.11
Sources
- Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) (million km²): NSIDC. Mean Arctic sea ice extent in September, the yearly minimum (NSIDC Sea Ice Index).
- US Cereal Yield (kg per hectare): World Bank. US Cereal Yield (World Bank indicator AG.YLD.CREL.KG).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Cereal Yield (r = +0.98)
- US Cereal Yield vs US Population (r = +0.97)
- US Cereal Yield vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.97)
- US Cereal Yield vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.96)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Cereal Yield (r = +0.95)
- US Median Age vs US Cereal Yield (r = +0.95)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.