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US Air Passengers Carried vs US Birth Rate
US Air Passengers Carried and US Birth Rate correlate at r = -0.76 over 54 years (1970–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.31. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.76, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.31. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.76
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 54 (1970–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.86 to -0.62
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.31
Sources
- US Air Passengers Carried (passengers): Our World in Data. US Air Passengers Carried (Our World in Data: Air transport, passengers carried).
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Air Passengers Carried vs US Life Expectancy (r = +0.94)
- US Air Passengers Carried vs US Median Age (r = +0.94)
- US Air Passengers Carried vs US Population (r = +0.94)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.93)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Birth Rate (r = +0.92)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.