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US Egg Consumption per Person vs US Adolescent Birth Rate

US Egg Consumption per Person and US Adolescent Birth Rate correlate at r = +0.40 over 63 years (1961–2023), p = 0.0010. With the time trend removed, r = -0.55. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.40, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.55. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.40
p-value
0.0010
Years compared (n)
63 (1961–2023)
95% confidence interval
0.17 to 0.59
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.55

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.