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US Egg Consumption per Person vs US Cereal Yield

US Egg Consumption per Person and US Cereal Yield correlate at r = -0.46 over 63 years (1961–2023), p = 1.4e-4. With the time trend removed, r = +0.59. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.46, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.59. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.46
p-value
1.4e-4
Years compared (n)
63 (1961–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.64 to -0.24
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.59

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.