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US Electricity Generation vs US Adolescent Birth Rate

US Electricity Generation and US Adolescent Birth Rate correlate at r = -0.76 over 40 years (1985–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.82. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.76, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.82. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.76
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
40 (1985–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.87 to -0.59
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.82

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.