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US Energy Use per Capita vs US Homicide Rate

US Energy Use per Capita and US Homicide Rate correlate at r = +0.40 over 31 years (1990–2023), p = 0.026. With the time trend removed, r = -0.65. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.40, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.65. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.40
p-value
0.026
Years compared (n)
31 (1990–2023)
95% confidence interval
0.05 to 0.66
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.65

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.