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US Fertility Rate vs US Homicide Rate
US Fertility Rate and US Homicide Rate correlate at r = +0.37 over 31 years (1990–2023), p = 0.039. With the time trend removed, r = -0.60. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.37, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.60. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- +0.37
- p-value
- 0.039
- Years compared (n)
- 31 (1990–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.02 to 0.64
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.60
Sources
- US Fertility Rate (children per woman): Our World in Data. US Fertility Rate (Our World in Data: Total fertility rate).
- US Homicide Rate (per 100,000 people): Our World in Data. US Homicide Rate (Our World in Data: Homicide rate per 100,000 population).
Related pairs
- US Homicide Rate vs US Rural Population (r = +0.94)
- US Homicide Rate vs US Urban Population (r = -0.94)
- US Homicide Rate vs US Life Expectancy (r = -0.91)
- US Fertility Rate vs US Birth Rate (r = +0.91)
- US Homicide Rate vs US Nuclear Power Generation (r = -0.89)
- US Fertility Rate vs US R&D Expenditure (r = -0.89)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.