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US Fertility Rate vs US GDP (current US$)
US Fertility Rate and US GDP (current US$) correlate at r = -0.52 over 64 years (1960–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.55. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.52, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.55. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.52
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 64 (1960–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.68 to -0.32
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.55
Sources
- US Fertility Rate (children per woman): Our World in Data. US Fertility Rate (Our World in Data: Total fertility rate).
- US GDP (current US$) (USD): World Bank. US GDP (current US$) (World Bank indicator NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).
Related pairs
- US GDP (current US$) vs US GDP per Capita (r = +1.00)
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- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.98)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
- US GDP (current US$) vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = +0.97)
- US Cereal Yield vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.96)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.