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US Fertility Rate vs US Population
US Fertility Rate and US Population correlate at r = -0.64 over 64 years (1960–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.61. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.64, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.61. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.64
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 64 (1960–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.77 to -0.47
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.61
Sources
- US Fertility Rate (children per woman): Our World in Data. US Fertility Rate (Our World in Data: Total fertility rate).
- US Population (people): World Bank. US Population (World Bank indicator SP.POP.TOTL).
Related pairs
- US Adult Obesity vs US Population (r = +1.00)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Population (r = +0.99)
- US Resident Patent Applications vs US Population (r = +0.98)
- US Median Age vs US Population (r = +0.98)
- US Cereal Yield vs US Population (r = +0.97)
- US GDP per Capita vs US Population (r = +0.97)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.