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US Natural Gas Consumption vs US Secondary School Enrollment

US Natural Gas Consumption and US Secondary School Enrollment correlate at r = +0.42 over 35 years (1971–2022), p = 0.012. With the time trend removed, r = -0.67. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.42, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.67. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.42
p-value
0.012
Years compared (n)
35 (1971–2022)
95% confidence interval
0.10 to 0.66
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.67

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.