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US Homicide Rate vs US Imports

US Homicide Rate and US Imports correlate at r = -0.86 over 31 years (1990–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.73. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = < 0.0001) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.73). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.86
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
31 (1990–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.93 to -0.73
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.73

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.