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US Marriage Rate vs US Adolescent Birth Rate
US Marriage Rate and US Adolescent Birth Rate correlate at r = +0.74 over 62 years (1960–2022), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.13. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.13 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- +0.74
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 62 (1960–2022)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.60 to 0.84
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.13
Sources
- US Marriage Rate (per 1,000 people): Our World in Data. US Marriage Rate (Our World in Data: Crude marriage rate).
- US Adolescent Birth Rate (per 1,000 women 15–19): World Bank. US Adolescent Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.ADO.TFRT).
Related pairs
- US Marriage Rate vs US Adult Obesity (r = -0.98)
- US Marriage Rate vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = -0.95)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Adolescent Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Marriage Rate vs US Mobile Subscriptions (r = -0.95)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Marriage Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Cereal Yield (r = -0.95)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.