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US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US Infant Mortality

US Federal Debt Outstanding and US Infant Mortality correlate at r = -0.64 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.84. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.64, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.84. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.64
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
65 (1960–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.77 to -0.47
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.84

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.