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US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US Population
US Federal Debt Outstanding and US Population correlate at r = +0.87 over 66 years (1960–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.07. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.07 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- +0.87
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 66 (1960–2025)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.79 to 0.92
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.07
Sources
- US Federal Debt Outstanding (USD): U.S. Treasury. Total US federal debt outstanding at the end of each fiscal year (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data).
- US Population (people): World Bank. US Population (World Bank indicator SP.POP.TOTL).
Related pairs
- US Adult Obesity vs US Population (r = +1.00)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Population (r = +0.99)
- US Renewable Energy Share vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Wind Power Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Resident Patent Applications vs US Population (r = +0.98)
- US Median Age vs US Population (r = +0.98)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.