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US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US Urban Population
US Federal Debt Outstanding and US Urban Population correlate at r = +0.75 over 66 years (1960–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.56. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.75, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.56. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- +0.75
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 66 (1960–2025)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.62 to 0.84
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.56
Sources
- US Federal Debt Outstanding (USD): U.S. Treasury. Total US federal debt outstanding at the end of each fiscal year (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data).
- US Urban Population (% of total): World Bank. US Urban Population (World Bank indicator SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS).
Related pairs
- US Rural Population vs US Urban Population (r = -1.00)
- US Renewable Energy Share vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Wind Power Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
- US Population vs US Urban Population (r = +0.97)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Urban Population (r = +0.95)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.