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US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Gross Savings

US Adolescent Birth Rate and US Gross Savings correlate at r = +0.50 over 55 years (1970–2024), p = 1.1e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.52. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.50, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.52. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.50
p-value
1.1e-4
Years compared (n)
55 (1970–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.27 to 0.67
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.52

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.