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US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Bank Lending Interest Rate

US Adolescent Birth Rate and US Bank Lending Interest Rate correlate at r = +0.30 over 62 years (1960–2021), p = 0.020. With the time trend removed, r = -0.01. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.020) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.01). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.30
p-value
0.020
Years compared (n)
62 (1960–2021)
95% confidence interval
0.05 to 0.51
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.01

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.