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US Agriculture Value Added vs US Forest Area

US Agriculture Value Added and US Forest Area correlate at r = -0.50 over 25 years (1997–2021), p = 0.010. With the time trend removed, r = +0.39. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.50, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.39. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.50
p-value
0.010
Years compared (n)
25 (1997–2021)
95% confidence interval
-0.75 to -0.14
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.39

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.