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US Birth Rate vs US Cereal Yield
US Birth Rate and US Cereal Yield correlate at r = -0.86 over 64 years (1961–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.02. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.02 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- -0.86
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 64 (1961–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.91 to -0.78
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.02
Sources
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
- US Cereal Yield (kg per hectare): World Bank. US Cereal Yield (World Bank indicator AG.YLD.CREL.KG).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Cereal Yield (r = +0.98)
- US Cereal Yield vs US Population (r = +0.97)
- US Cereal Yield vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.97)
- US Cereal Yield vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.96)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Cereal Yield (r = +0.95)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.