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US Birth Rate vs US GDP (current US$)
US Birth Rate and US GDP (current US$) correlate at r = -0.81 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.26. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.26 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- -0.81
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 65 (1960–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.88 to -0.70
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.26
Sources
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
- US GDP (current US$) (USD): World Bank. US GDP (current US$) (World Bank indicator NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).
Related pairs
- US GDP (current US$) vs US GDP per Capita (r = +1.00)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.98)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.98)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
- US GDP (current US$) vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = +0.97)
- US Cereal Yield vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.96)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.