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US CO₂ Emissions per Capita vs US Population

US CO₂ Emissions per Capita and US Population correlate at r = -0.87 over 55 years (1970–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.42. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.87, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.42. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.87
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
55 (1970–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.92 to -0.79
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.42

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.