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US Exports vs US GDP (current US$)
US Exports and US GDP (current US$) correlate at r = +0.76 over 55 years (1970–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.42. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.76, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.42. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- +0.76
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 55 (1970–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.62 to 0.85
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.42
Sources
- US Exports (% of GDP): World Bank. US Exports (World Bank indicator NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS).
- US GDP (current US$) (USD): World Bank. US GDP (current US$) (World Bank indicator NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).
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- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
- US GDP (current US$) vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = +0.97)
- US Cereal Yield vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.96)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.