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US Exports vs US Imports

US Exports and US Imports correlate at r = +0.90 over 55 years (1970–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.63. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = < 0.0001) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.63). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.90
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
55 (1970–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.84 to 0.94
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.63

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.