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US GDP per Capita vs US Youth Unemployment

US GDP per Capita and US Youth Unemployment correlate at r = -0.37 over 35 years (1991–2025), p = 0.030. With the time trend removed, r = -0.49. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.030) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.49). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.37
p-value
0.030
Years compared (n)
35 (1991–2025)
95% confidence interval
-0.62 to -0.04
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.49

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.