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US Unemployment Rate vs US Youth Unemployment

US Unemployment Rate and US Youth Unemployment correlate at r = +0.98 over 35 years (1991–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.98. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = < 0.0001) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.98). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.98
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
35 (1991–2025)
95% confidence interval
0.97 to 0.99
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.98

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.