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US Gross Savings vs US Military Expenditure

US Gross Savings and US Military Expenditure correlate at r = +0.39 over 55 years (1970–2024), p = 0.0030. With the time trend removed, r = -0.37. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.39, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.37. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.39
p-value
0.0030
Years compared (n)
55 (1970–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.14 to 0.60
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.37

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.