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US Imports vs US Inflation Rate

US Imports and US Inflation Rate correlate at r = -0.50 over 55 years (1970–2024), p = 1.2e-4. With the time trend removed, r = +0.04. Interpret with caution.

Verdict: Interpret with caution. Much of the apparent link is driven by a shared time trend: r falls from -0.50 to 0.04 once the trend is removed.

Pearson r
-0.50
p-value
1.2e-4
Years compared (n)
55 (1970–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.67 to -0.27
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.04

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.