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US Imports vs US Bank Lending Interest Rate

US Imports and US Bank Lending Interest Rate correlate at r = -0.51 over 52 years (1970–2021), p = 1.1e-4. With the time trend removed, r = +0.26. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 1.1e-4) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.26). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.51
p-value
1.1e-4
Years compared (n)
52 (1970–2021)
95% confidence interval
-0.69 to -0.28
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.26

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.