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US Infant Mortality vs US Population

US Infant Mortality and US Population correlate at r = -0.91 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.61. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.91, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.61. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.91
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
65 (1960–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.94 to -0.85
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.61

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.