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US Bank Lending Interest Rate vs US Net Migration

US Bank Lending Interest Rate and US Net Migration correlate at r = -0.46 over 62 years (1960–2021), p = 1.8e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.35. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 1.8e-4) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.35). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.46
p-value
1.8e-4
Years compared (n)
62 (1960–2021)
95% confidence interval
-0.64 to -0.24
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.35

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.