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US Military Expenditure vs US Secondary School Enrollment

US Military Expenditure and US Secondary School Enrollment correlate at r = -0.43 over 35 years (1971–2022), p = 0.011. With the time trend removed, r = +0.50. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.43, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.50. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.43
p-value
0.011
Years compared (n)
35 (1971–2022)
95% confidence interval
-0.66 to -0.11
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.50

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.