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US Population vs US Tax Revenue

US Population and US Tax Revenue correlate at r = -0.30 over 53 years (1972–2024), p = 0.030. With the time trend removed, r = -0.03. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.030) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.03). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.30
p-value
0.030
Years compared (n)
53 (1972–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.53 to -0.03
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.03

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.