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New York Average Temperature vs US Federal Debt Outstanding
New York Average Temperature and US Federal Debt Outstanding correlate at r = +0.69 over 66 years (1960–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.16. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.16 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- +0.69
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 66 (1960–2025)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.53 to 0.80
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.16
Sources
- New York Average Temperature (°C): Open-Meteo (ERA5). Annual mean 2m air temperature for New York from the ERA5 reanalysis.
- US Federal Debt Outstanding (USD): U.S. Treasury. Total US federal debt outstanding at the end of each fiscal year (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data).
Related pairs
- US Renewable Energy Share vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Wind Power Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.95)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.95)
- US Natural Gas Consumption vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.94)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.