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New York Average Temperature vs US Birth Rate
New York Average Temperature and US Birth Rate correlate at r = -0.68 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.14. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.14 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- -0.68
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 65 (1960–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.79 to -0.52
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.14
Sources
- New York Average Temperature (°C): Open-Meteo (ERA5). Annual mean 2m air temperature for New York from the ERA5 reanalysis.
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.93)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Birth Rate (r = +0.92)
- US Birth Rate vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = -0.92)
- US Fertility Rate vs US Birth Rate (r = +0.91)
- US Birth Rate vs US R&D Expenditure (r = -0.91)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.