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Sydney Average Temperature vs US Homicide Rate

Sydney Average Temperature and US Homicide Rate correlate at r = -0.59 over 31 years (1990–2023), p = 4.2e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.43. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 4.2e-4) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.43). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.59
p-value
4.2e-4
Years compared (n)
31 (1990–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.78 to -0.30
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.43

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.