Tokyo Average Temperature vs Worldwide Major Earthquakes (M5+)

Tokyo Average Temperature and Worldwide Major Earthquakes (M5+) correlate at r = +0.36 over 66 years (1960–2025), p = 0.0028. With the time trend removed, r = -0.32. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.36, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.32. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r: +0.36
p-value: 0.0028
Years compared (n): 66 (1960–2025)
95% confidence interval: 0.13 to 0.56
Correlation with the time trend removed: -0.32

Sources

Tokyo Average Temperature (°C): Open-Meteo (ERA5). Annual mean 2m air temperature for Tokyo from the ERA5 reanalysis.
Worldwide Major Earthquakes (M5+) (earthquakes per year): USGS. Annual worldwide count of magnitude 5+ earthquakes (USGS ComCat).

Related pairs

US Annual Working Hours per Worker vs Worldwide Major Earthquakes (M5+) (r = -0.89)
Tokyo Average Temperature vs Atmospheric Methane (global) (r = +0.86)
Tokyo Average Temperature vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.83)
Tokyo Average Temperature vs US Natural Gas Consumption (r = +0.83)
Tokyo Average Temperature vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.83)
Worldwide Major Earthquakes (M5+) vs US Infant Mortality (r = -0.82)

Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.