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US Dollar to Japanese Yen vs US Tax Revenue

US Dollar to Japanese Yen and US Tax Revenue correlate at r = +0.46 over 26 years (1999–2024), p = 0.018. With the time trend removed, r = +0.48. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.018) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.48). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.46
p-value
0.018
Years compared (n)
26 (1999–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.09 to 0.72
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.48

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.