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Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) vs US Federal Debt Outstanding
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) and US Federal Debt Outstanding correlate at r = -0.80 over 47 years (1979–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.12. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.12 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- -0.80
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 47 (1979–2025)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.89 to -0.67
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.12
Sources
- Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) (million km²): NSIDC. Mean Arctic sea ice extent in September, the yearly minimum (NSIDC Sea Ice Index).
- US Federal Debt Outstanding (USD): U.S. Treasury. Total US federal debt outstanding at the end of each fiscal year (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data).
Related pairs
- US Renewable Energy Share vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Wind Power Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.95)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.95)
- US Natural Gas Consumption vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.94)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.