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US Electricity Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding

US Electricity Generation and US Federal Debt Outstanding correlate at r = +0.74 over 41 years (1985–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.65. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.74, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.65. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.74
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
41 (1985–2025)
95% confidence interval
0.57 to 0.86
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.65

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.