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US Fertility Rate vs US Oil Consumption

US Fertility Rate and US Oil Consumption correlate at r = -0.61 over 59 years (1965–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.37. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = < 0.0001) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.37). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.61
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
59 (1965–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.75 to -0.41
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.37

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.