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US Fertility Rate vs US Net Migration
US Fertility Rate and US Net Migration correlate at r = -0.36 over 64 years (1960–2023), p = 0.0035. With the time trend removed, r = +0.32. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.36, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.32. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.36
- p-value
- 0.0035
- Years compared (n)
- 64 (1960–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.56 to -0.12
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.32
Sources
- US Fertility Rate (children per woman): Our World in Data. US Fertility Rate (Our World in Data: Total fertility rate).
- US Net Migration (people): World Bank. US Net Migration (World Bank indicator SM.POP.NETM).
Related pairs
- US Fertility Rate vs US Birth Rate (r = +0.91)
- US Fertility Rate vs US R&D Expenditure (r = -0.89)
- US Fertility Rate vs US Annual Working Hours per Worker (r = +0.87)
- US Dollar to British Pound vs US Fertility Rate (r = -0.86)
- US Fertility Rate vs US Wind Power Generation (r = -0.86)
- US Air Passengers Carried vs US Net Migration (r = +0.84)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.