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US Homicide Rate vs US Federal Debt Outstanding
US Homicide Rate and US Federal Debt Outstanding correlate at r = -0.48 over 31 years (1990–2023), p = 0.0062. With the time trend removed, r = +0.84. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.48, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.84. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.48
- p-value
- 0.0062
- Years compared (n)
- 31 (1990–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.71 to -0.15
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.84
Sources
- US Homicide Rate (per 100,000 people): Our World in Data. US Homicide Rate (Our World in Data: Homicide rate per 100,000 population).
- US Federal Debt Outstanding (USD): U.S. Treasury. Total US federal debt outstanding at the end of each fiscal year (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data).
Related pairs
- US Renewable Energy Share vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Wind Power Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.95)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.95)
- US Natural Gas Consumption vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.94)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.