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US Homicide Rate vs US Birth Rate
US Homicide Rate and US Birth Rate correlate at r = +0.67 over 31 years (1990–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.09. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.09 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- +0.67
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 31 (1990–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.41 to 0.83
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.09
Sources
- US Homicide Rate (per 100,000 people): Our World in Data. US Homicide Rate (Our World in Data: Homicide rate per 100,000 population).
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Homicide Rate vs US Rural Population (r = +0.94)
- US Homicide Rate vs US Urban Population (r = -0.94)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.93)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Birth Rate (r = +0.92)
- US Birth Rate vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = -0.92)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.