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US Homicide Rate vs US Inflation Rate

US Homicide Rate and US Inflation Rate correlate at r = +0.44 over 31 years (1990–2023), p = 0.013. With the time trend removed, r = +0.56. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.013) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.56). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.44
p-value
0.013
Years compared (n)
31 (1990–2023)
95% confidence interval
0.10 to 0.69
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.56

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.