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US Homicide Rate vs US Bank Lending Interest Rate

US Homicide Rate and US Bank Lending Interest Rate correlate at r = +0.59 over 29 years (1990–2021), p = 6.7e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.03. Likely spurious (shared time trend).

Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.03 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.

Pearson r
+0.59
p-value
6.7e-4
Years compared (n)
29 (1990–2021)
95% confidence interval
0.29 to 0.79
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.03

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.