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US Annual Working Hours per Worker vs US Federal Debt Outstanding

US Annual Working Hours per Worker and US Federal Debt Outstanding correlate at r = -0.35 over 81 years (1870–2023), p = 0.0014. With the time trend removed, r = +0.65. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.35, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.65. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.35
p-value
0.0014
Years compared (n)
81 (1870–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.53 to -0.14
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.65

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.